Japan's Energy Transition: Between Policy Ambition and Social Disconnect
Japan's 2025 energy plan faces criticism over modest renewable targets, while CCS projects advance amid controversy and Hokkaido sees data center-driven power demand growth.
*Editor’s note: This article was originally published on 1/29/2025 on Linkedin.
Welcome! I'm Hiroyasu Ichikawa, ichi, and this is issue 138 of the "Japan Climate Curation" newsletter📬, which has been curating hand-picked Japan-related climate news content every week since spring 2022, with over 410 subscribers [ more than 2,680 on Linedin]. You can subscribe by clicking on the Linkedin page or the form below.
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*Disclaimer: Generative AI tools such as Claude Sonet 3.5 has been used for summary and translation assistance 🙂
【Digest of this week's topics】
Japan faces complex challenges in its energy transition as 2025 begins. The draft 7th Strategic Energy Plan draws criticism for its conservative renewable energy targets (40-50% by 2040) and continued reliance on controversial technologies like CCS, while Japanese youth show notably low engagement with climate issues compared to global peers. The country is advancing several strategic initiatives, including major CCS projects targeting 120-240 million tons of annual storage by 2050, though some face opposition as "carbon colonialism." Infrastructure development shows regional dynamism, with Hokkaido expecting significant power demand growth from data centers while the government introduces new support measures for offshore wind projects. In the transportation sector, hydrogen technology finds promise in commercial applications despite limited passenger vehicle adoption, and Japanese investors are actively backing innovative carbon recycling technologies.
[🇯🇵📰👀Japan Climate News Headlines]
【1】Why Are Japanese Youth Disconnected from Climate Change? Unable to Make It Personal [1/26 Mainichi Newspaper]
Japanese youth show notably lower concern about climate change compared to their international counterparts, with surveys indicating only 70.7% of 18-29 year-olds expressing interest. Key factors include difficulty in personalizing the issue, social stigma around environmental activism, career concerns regarding political involvement, and a "guilty bias" that leads to avoidance of the topic. Unlike global trends following Greta Thunberg's activism, Japanese young people often avoid discussing climate change, with 41.6% never engaging in climate conversations - the highest among 11 surveyed countries.
【2】Strategic Energy Plan for 2040: Three Main Challenges for Japan [1/24 Renewable Energy Institute]
The Renewable Energy Institute critiques Japan's draft 7th Strategic Energy Plan, highlighting three major concerns: low energy self-sufficiency (30-40% vs. REI's projected 75% by 2040), high power generation costs due to over-reliance on "zero-emission thermal power," and significant uncertainties in implementing hydrogen, ammonia, and CCS technologies. The analysis shows that a renewable-focused approach could achieve higher self-sufficiency and lower costs, with REI's scenarios demonstrating the feasibility of a power system primarily based on renewables while meeting Japan's decarbonization goals.
【3】New Year’s Seminar - Renewables Sets the Stage for Japan's Decarbonization/ New Challenges for 2035 and 2040 [1/21 Renewable Energy Institute]
A New Year's seminar hosted by the Renewable Energy Institute addressed Japan's decarbonization challenges following the government's release of a new draft NDC and Strategic Energy Plan in late 2024. The event explored key themes including the feasibility of 80-90% renewable electricity by 2035-2040, electricity cost analysis, offshore wind acceleration, solar deployment strategies, and industrial decarbonization through GX strategy. The seminar brought together diverse stakeholders including companies, local authorities, researchers, NGOs, and government representatives to discuss Japan's energy transition pathway.
【4】Japan’s draft energy plan fails to meet the clean energy transition imperative [1/27 E3G]
Japan's seventh Strategic Energy Plan draft falls short of international commitments and climate imperatives, setting underwhelming targets for renewable energy (40-50% by 2040) despite the potential for 60-80%. The plan fails to address coal phase-out commitments or provide clear transition paths from fossil fuels, jeopardizing Japan's G7 commitment to decarbonize its power sector by 2035. This lack of ambition risks Japan's economic future, potentially costing 26 trillion yen in energy trade deficit and estimated climate-related damages of 9% of GDP by 2050.
【5】PRI response to METI and MOE consultations on climate and energy policies [1/29 PRI(Principles for Responsible Investment)]
The PRI has responded to three interconnected Japanese government consultations: METI's 7th Basic Energy Plan and GX 2040 Vision, and MOE's Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures. These documents collectively outline Japan's strategy to balance energy security, economic growth, and net-zero goals, with a particular focus on 2040 targets. While the PRI welcomes the increased context for responsible investors, it recommends stronger emissions reduction commitments, enhanced private capital mobilization, and clearer approaches to key energy sources to meet international expectations for developed nations.
【6】How Japan is looking deep underground to solve its carbon problem [1/26 Japan Times]
Japan is advancing its carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiatives with nine major projects selected by JOGMEC, aiming to store 120-240 million tons of CO2 annually by 2050. The government sees CCS as crucial for decarbonizing industries and thermal power plants, investing billions of yen in development. However, the technology faces challenges including high costs, technical uncertainties, and environmental concerns. Five projects plan domestic storage while four target overseas sites in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Australia, sparking debates about both technical feasibility and environmental justice.
Four projects targeting overseas CO2 storage in Southeast Asia and Australia
Specialized ships being developed for CO2 transport
Former oil and gas fields proposed as storage sites pose potential leakage risks
90 civil society organizations oppose the plan as "carbon colonialism."
Absence of fossil fuel phase-out policy in Japan raises concerns
Technical and regulatory challenges in managing overseas storage sites
【7】Hydrogen still holds promise as a fuel - It is proving to be particularly well-suited for commercial use and industries such as trucking and public transportation [1/23 Financial Times]
While hydrogen has long been touted as a future fuel source, its adoption in passenger vehicles has been limited, with Toyota selling just 27,500 hydrogen cars in a decade compared to 17 million EVs sold last year. However, Asian automakers like Hyundai and Toyota remain committed, with Hyundai investing $16.7 billion in hydrogen technology. Despite challenges including high fuel costs and Trump's suspension of federal funding, hydrogen is gaining traction in commercial applications, particularly in Asia and Europe, where its quick refueling and cold-weather performance advantages make it suitable for heavy-duty vehicles.
【8】Japan Sees Data Center-Driven Power Boom in Northern Region [1/22 Bloomberg]
Hokkaido projected to have highest power demand growth at 1.2% annually through 2034
Growth driven by data centers and semiconductor manufacturing facilities Rapidus Corp. to begin chip production in 2027
Total demand expected to reach 31 terawatt hours by 2034, up 12% from 2025
Development puts focus on Tomari Nuclear Power Plant's future and renewable energy projects
【9】Japan govt. to help ease cost of building offshore wind farms [1/28 NHK World]
The Japanese government is introducing new measures to support offshore wind farm development by allowing construction cost increases to be partially passed on to utility companies purchasing the power. This policy change, set to begin with the next public tender, aims to address the roughly 40% rise in construction costs since 2018, primarily due to increased steel prices. The initiative aligns with Japan's energy strategy targeting renewable energy as the primary electricity source by fiscal 2040, with offshore wind power playing a crucial role.
【10】Australian carbon recycling startup lures Japanese investors - Mitsubishi Ube Cement joins Itochu, Mizuho, SMBC as investor of MCi [1/29 Nikkei Asia]
Australian carbon recycling startup MCi has secured a $5 million investment from Mitsubishi Ube Cement, adding to its existing Japanese investors including Itochu, Mizuho Bank, and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. MCi's technology extracts minerals from industrial waste to bond with CO2, creating materials for cement production and other industrial uses. The company plans to launch its first commercial plant in Austria by 2028 and is actively seeking expansion in Japan, leveraging the country's technological capabilities and strong bilateral ties with Australia.
📬That's all for this week! Thank you for reading(or skimming) 🙇. I hope you will have a wonderful week ahead!
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ichi (Hiroyasu Ichikawa)